Erin is expected to intensify steadily over the next several days. Current ensemble model guidance continues to favor a recurving track that keeps the storm offshore and away from the U.S. mainland. Fewer than 10% of ensemble members show any U.S. landfall or direct impact, an encouraging sign. The odds of Erin entering the Gulf of Mexico are even lower, at under 2%, meaning there is no threat to the Florida Panhandle at this time. The key to Erin’s track lies in the subtropical ridge over the A