"In this universe effect follows cause. I've complained about it, but. . ." -- House (Laurie), pre-sponding to D. Bem "The more extraordinary the event, the greater the need for it to be supported by ...

Bayesian statistics represents a powerful framework for data analysis that centres on Bayes’ theorem, enabling researchers to update existing beliefs with incoming evidence. By combining prior ...

Learn how prior probability informs economic theory and decision-making in Bayesian statistics. Understand its role before collecting new data.

Nate Silver, baseball statistician turned political analyst, gained a lot of attention during the 2012 United States elections when he successfully predicted the outcome of the presidential vote in ...

It turns out that the old adage about statistics and damned lies wasn’t a joke. Sticks and stones may be bonebreakers, and words inflict no (physical) pain, but numbers can kill. In 2004, for instance ...

Regular Bayesian and frequentist approximations in statistics are studied within a unified framework. In particular it is shown how some higher-order likelihood-based approximations arise from their ...

Everyone who spends time with children knows how incredibly much they learn. But how can babies and young children possibly learn so much so quickly? In a recent article in Science, I describe a ...

This article was published in Scientific American’s former blog network and reflects the views of the author, not necessarily those of Scientific American I’m not sure when I first heard of Bayes’ ...

Despite knowing when life first appeared on Earth, scientists still do not understand how life occurred, which has important implications for the likelihood of finding life elsewhere in the universe.